This paper briefly reviews how the prediction of the next glaciation has been evolving in the scientific community and why the viewpoints are so divergent. The key to the scientific prediction of the next glaciation lies in the understanding of specific features of the present and future orbital forcing, and of the mechanisms of carbon cycling. The recent discovery of periodic occurrences of delta (super 13) Cmax over the last 5 Ma in the deep-sea sequence at ODP Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea indicates that long-term changes in carbon reservoirs on Earth have their own periodicity and their own history, and do not simply follow ice cap variations. Because disturbances in carbon reservoirs lead to major growth in the size of ice sheets, and because the Earth is now passing through a delta (super 13) Cmax episode, it is crucial to understand the causal relationship between successive delta (super 13) C changes and ice sheet growth events.